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@evan @hamishcampbell @_elena

Since they have $100M in the bank, 3 is probably a way off. AFACT, they are currently doing both 1 and 2 in parallel; if you look at their protocol engineers, I do believe they are really all in on 1, but much of the rest of the company is taking every opportunity to act in a decentralized manner and going in the opposite direction.

@ricci @hamishcampbell @_elena well, they had $100M when they raised money last year.

Crypto funds love to rollover crypto assets. So maybe some of it was in crypto, like Bitcoin, which has since dropped 25% against USD.

And they've been operating a tech startup with 20-30 staff and dozens of contractors, plus hosting costs which are somewhere in the $20-50M/year range, I'd bet.

If I had to guess on runway for BlueSky today, I'd say 12-24 months.

@mastodonmigration @hamishcampbell @_elena I won't argue with this. Having two incompatible stacks hurts the entire ecosystem. When developers and decisionmakers see that, it makes them want to sit back and wait to see what comes out on top.

I think our best mitigation for that right now is reassurance that investing time, energy and money into ActivityPub will not be a waste.

@evan @hamishcampbell @_elena

💯 Slow and steady wins the race. It is just frustrating that people are so easily distracted by bright shiny objects.

@hamishcampbell @_elena the good part is that this is what we should do in the best case scenario, too. So, all worthwhile.

@hamishcampbell @_elena one other thing: bridging is really important for us all right now. It's how we can tell developers to implement ActivityPub and still get access to the BlueSky audience. I hope everyone works to support BridgyFed.

@hamishcampbell @_elena

So, I think there are two important things people in the Fediverse movement can do to help with these possible outcomes.

@hamishcampbell @_elena

The first is to keep building on ActivityPub. I love our protocol and our ecosystem, and I think it's a wonderful network. But it's also a necessary hedge against clawback or collapse.